Cincinnati at Houston

Through 12 games at 11-1, the Texans looked like a team destined for the Super Bowl. As they often do in the NFL, things changed dramatically for this team over the last month of the season where they went just 1-3 straight-up and ATS. The offense, which went for over 30 points in six of their first 11 games, failed to do so once over their last five. Their average points per game dropped from over 30 to just over 16. They were held to less than 17 points just one time in their first 12 games, but failed to get there in three of their last four games. It appears that defensive coordinators have figure out this Texans offense to some extent and Houston hasn't been able to react positively. The offense wasn't their only problem, as the mighty Texans’ defense that limited their first nine opponents to 17 points per game, broke down and allowed 27 per game in their last seven. The Bengals endured a painful 0-4 stretch themselves this season, but fortunately it came early enough for them to work out their problems. They then came roaring back after the skid to finish 7-1 both SU and ATS. Outside of that one bad stretch, the Bengals were an impressive 10-2 on the season. The difference here is that the Texans have gone from looking Super at 11-1, to in a funk. The Bengals have left their funk behind to look Super at 7-1 in their last eight. Houston's pythagorean wins (a truer measure of a team's strength than actual wins) is 10, compared to 12 actual wins. They aren't as good as advertised. Cincinnati has gone 6-2 this season on the road. One team is off their game and favored, the other is on their game and is a dog, setting the stage for a live dog here. Cincy is coming in off a win and under Marvin Lewis, this team is 28-15 ATS on the road after a win. Take Cincinnati with the points.