Carolina at Atlanta

The Falcons saw a lot of streaks come to an end last week when as they were beaten at home for the first time this season by the New Orleans Saints. It ended an eight game winning streak and a six game ATS winning streak and dropped Matty Ice to 19-2 at home in his career. That was a real stinger of a loss in what was supposed to be a big statment game for the Falcons. Teams that have long streaks snapped often play flat in their next game. With what on paper is a lay down easy win vs. a 2-13 Carolina team, it adds to the possibility of Atlanta sleeping a bit here. Carolina should be lose here. They have nothing to lose. They have locked up the #1 pick in the draft regardless of the outcome. They have a shot at playing spoiler and I think they will relish that. They also have the motivation to play well for their coach in his (likely) last game. Under John Fox, the Panthers are 11-3 ATS revening a loss in which they allowed 28+ points. They are also 10-2 ATS under Fox after a game in which they failed to score a touchdown. This is also a team that is 55-40 ATS as a road dog in their franchise history, and when the number reaches double-digits they are 12-7 ATS. The Falcons aren’t good at taking down big numbers as they are 1-5 ATS in their last six as a favorite of 10.5 or more. I like Carolina. I also like the OVER here. The Panthers have shown limited offense this season, but in spite of that they have played to a 4-2-1 OVER mark in their last seven games. The Falcons are 15-7 to the OVER after a straight-up loss, and five of the last six played between these clubs in Atlanta have topped the total. I'm taking Carolina, the points, and the OVER in this one.