Baltimore at Pittsburgh

The Baltimore Ravens will head to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers for the third time this season as some have dubbed this game the “trilogy.” This is a big division rivalry, playing for the right to advance to the AFC Championship game next week. Fittingly, these teams won on each other’s field by a field goal during the regular season in two tough defensive struggles that averaged just 27 points per game. Seven of the last eight meetings have been decided by less than a touchdown. So why would I be willing to lay points that have looked pretty big between these teams in the last three years? First, this is a playoff game and if you had that same feeling the last time these teams met in Pittsburgh in the playoffs, it was the wrong feeling as the Steelers won by 9 points, despite the close regular season games. Joe Flacco has thrown seven INTs vs. the Steelers in the seven meetings (compared to only six touchdowns). The Steelers have an opportunistic defense that has caused a lot of problems for the Ravens. Baltimore has committed 15 turnovers in the seven games over the last three years to the Steelers nine. They have also turned the ball over at least two times in five of the last six games. The last three times they played in Pittsburgh, the Ravens have turned the ball over nine times. They beat the Steelers this year by defeating Charlie Batch, but Big Ben has a playoffs pedigree, and Pittsburgh has covered their last three playoff games here. As much as this is a rivalry, Big Ben has won six straight vs. the Ravens. Three of Baltimore's four losses this season came on the road and in division games, they are just 2-4 ATS this season. The Steelers had an extra week to rest and prepare and that can make all the difference here. Over the last eight years, these teams have played to 34.8 points per game. This season, Baltimore is allowing 16.1 per game on the road and 12.7 per game in division matchups. Pittsburgh has allowed 13.7 per game at home and 12.3 in division games. The UNDER has come through to a 5-1 mark in Baltimore's division games this season. I like the Steelers in a low-scoring game.