Baltimore at New York

Quarterback Quincy Carter was "replaced" this year in Dallas by Vinny Testaverde. In a way, Carter gets a shot at showing the league that it was a mistake. He'll try to do what Vinny couldn't do last year - lead the Jets to success after the loss of Chad Pennington. Yes, Pennington is out. Does that mean the Jets should be getting points at home agains the Ravens? No way. Carter played 16 games for the Cowboys last year and they were 10-6. This year without him, they are 3-5. Hmmmm. No, I am not a huge Carter fan - really. But, I do think there's a ton of value on the Jets here in this game. But enough about the quarterbacks. Let's talk Curtis Martin. Actually no need. You know all about this guy who is having a career year and is second in the league in rushing. I have said NY is overrated and in general, they are. That's one reason I released a "lean" on the Bills last week. But, they are not overrated in this one. In fact, it's their opponent that is a bit overrated. Balto is 5-3 but I'm just not a big believer yet. Their defense is very good but I think they're schedule has been pretty weak, including games against Cincinnati, Washington, Buffalo and Kansas City (when they were playing very poorly). I just can't back a team with an offense this bad on the road as a favorite. They are ranked last in the league in pass offense and total offense. They'll be facing a Jets defense that's 11th in the league and solid against both the run and the pass. Baltimore is 2-2 on the road and scoring just 13 points per game. I think the Jets can score more than that. Nice value here due to the loss of Pennington and Baltimore's recent apparent good performance. Home underdogs off 4 straight ATS wins are 24% ATS including 0-2 so far this year. Bet 165 to win 150 on the NY Jets plus the points.