Baltimore at Houston

Houston started the season 3-1 but they have since lost six of eight. They have run into some pretty tough teams during this stretch including the Giants, Kansas City, Indy, San Diego, Jacksonville, the Jets and Philly. As the expectations have lowered, this team has gone 2-1 ATS in their last three games. The Texans will get just their 4th Monday Night football game at home since the franchise was reborn in Texas. As a result, I expect plenty of excitement from both the crowd and players here, offering a unique edge for the Texans. Baltimore has a reputation as a defensive stalwart, but this season the numbers have shown that this is not quite the same Ravens defense we are used to. They are still a good defensive team, especially in points allowed, but the fact is, they are just +0.2 yards better on defense than what the offenses they have faced average. So they aren't as dominating as they have been in past seasons. Houston's offense is good, putting up 373 yards per game (6th in the league) so they will test this Ravens defense. As a road favorite of 3 points, the Ravens have been bad, losing five straight outright as 3 point road chalk! Home teams that produce 360+ yrds a game on the season as pick or a dog are an astounding 79-44 ATS. The Texans are 8-3 ATS in their last eleven games as a home dog. And, under Gary Kubiak, this team is 9-1 ATS at home in December games. The public is overwhelmingly on Baltimore here with 8 out of 10 bets coming in on the road favorite. How did that work out for the visiting favorite on Thursday night? My computer matchup (not an official pick) predicts a 2 points Ravens victory. I like the Texans with the points as a live home dog here.