Atlanta at Carolina

The Atlanta Falcons have put themselves in position to control their own destiny in the playoffs and at 10-2, they can have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. This team has won six straight games, but they are far from a dominate team. The Falcons have won five of those six by 7 points or less. The season shows seven of their ten wins by a single possession. This team is getting beaten from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. They average just 5.3 yards a play vs. a schedule of opponents that allow 5.5 average. The defense is allowing six yards per play to opponents offenses that average just 5.5. So they are underperforming on both sides of the ball and when you look at yards per play, they are getting beaten on the year on average. So we have a 10-2 team that really isn't as good as their record would indicate. The Panthers have lost six straight games. Their offense is weak, but defensively they have been solid. Teams on a six game losing streak are a good value as they are 133-112 ATS. As a home dog of more than 7 points, Carolina is 10-2 ATS lifetime. Atlanta's 6.0 yards per play allowed ranks them third from last in the NFL. Carolina is 22-10 ATS at home vs. teams that allow over 5.6 yards per play on defense. Under John Fox, the Panthers are 31-20 ATS after scoring 14 or fewer points last game and 25-15 ATS after a double-digit loss. I like Carolina plus the points in this one.