A pair of sports wagering angles to examine by Week 7 of the NFL season are injuries and changes implemented by a coaching staff. The halfway point of the NFL campaign is approaching, which means most teams have piled up plenty of injuries. Some are temporary, some are long-term, and some are to key starters on offense or defense.
Teams have no choice but to plug in backups for a few games until the starters are healthy enough to return. If multiple starters are lost for the season, then those backups become the starters the rest of the way. That forces the new players to grow up fast, and absorb larger roles and responsibilities while eating into a team's depth.
Too many backups forced in as starters can negatively affect the stats offensively or defensively, which means you have to handicap recent play and results rather than the entire season. Coaches also make changes to the playbook, either to try and jumpstart a struggling offense or take adjust to the new personnel forced in. That can also influence stats and their ability to cover the spread on gameday. Looking for unbias NFL picks? Check out my NFL computer picks for week 7.
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Changes like that to a team's play mean handicapping weekly games is an evolving, fluid process requiring a lot of attention. Getting weekly free NFL picks sent to you can help economize valuable handicapping time by getting a quick readout on games that have updates on injuries and schematic changes from around the NFL that you may have missed.
Organizing time and important changes are essential to evaluate how a team might perform, as even oddsmakers can't be certain who good backups are or when starters might return.
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Betting Value in NFL Week 7 Picks
Injured quarterbacks are always factored into betting lines, but other key personnel can stay under the radar to oddsmakers and the NFL betting public. In addition, when coaches make changes to the playbook, such as adding a spread formation on offense or the no-huddle, that is unlikely to factor into the betting line.
If a defense is struggling, many coaches will look to keep the offense on the field more to help the defense with game plans designed to control the ball, picking up first downs with short safe passes augmented by a ground-heavy attack. That projects to a lower scoring game UNDER the NFL total, or a strong performance if the team they're facing struggles versus the run or on third down.
Identifying and predicting subtle edges goes a long way to unearthing wagering value as we all try to predict the final score.
Wunderdog NFL Week 7 Picks
Anyone can have a hot week against the spread, but the only way to master the challenging world of odds and betting is if you win consistently over the long haul. That separates the hopefuls from the pros.
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The bottom line is winning. Winning money at sports betting requires a careful examination of each game on the field, the outside factors involved, along with assessing if there is wagering value with the side, total, or moneyline. I assess how teams should perform and the mathematical percentages that surround the odds.
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Free NFL Week 7 Betting Strategy
Injury Reports
Daily sports injury reports are a basic element to examine. Sometimes teams have a lot of injuries, but it's more important to quickly assess two things:
- Star Players;
- Do these injuries seriously affect the depth in one area? Oddsmakers will make adjustments of a few points if a star player is hobbling or out, sometimes as much as 7-points if it's a star quarterback. And if two offensive linemen are out it's essential to see if that team has experienced depth or high draft picks at the positions.
After all, even a star QB will be in big trouble if the offensive line can't protect him. Or, if a team has a starting cornerback and safety out, the defense could be in for a rough night against a great passing attack, putting the wagering value on the OVER in a potentially high-scoring tilt.
Coaches Changing Schemes
Competent coaching staffs will have a track record of making changes during the regular season based on struggling personnel or areas that aren't producing. In Week 7, for example, a team that hasn't been running the football well may try a few new offensive linemen, give rookie running backs a chance, or spread the field with no running backs and look to pass more.
This puts a premium on watching games to identify changes in philosophy, especially if teams and coaches you're familiar with have a record of doing so. That's an edge that a lot of bettors and even oddsmakers won't be expecting.
Subtle Changes Can Be Impactful to Covering
Benching a starting NFL quarterback around Week 7 will be big news around the country that everyone will be aware of. But there are countless subtle changes that can give you an edge at the betting window. A coaching staff may have a history of utilizing trick plays against a divisional rival which can result in more points than usual.
Look at last year's two meetings in divisional matchups to see if that's been the case. Or, it's easy to identify very good coaching staffs that make important halftime adjustments resulting in them regularly coming out strong in the third quarter.
This can create excellent opportunities to make second-half wagers if they're down 17-7 at the half, for instance. There are endless ways to find edges against the spread, you just have to know what to look for and when to pounce on them.
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