October is the meat of the football season. It often features the first big showdowns, unbeaten teams suffering their first loss, and where NFL playoff teams flex their muscles and begin to separate from the pack.
It's also the month when bye weeks start adding an extra dimension to situational handicapping when teams will have two weeks to rest and prepare against an opponent that played the previous week. By now, fans and bettors have a good sense of the strengths and weaknesses of each team.
But so do the folks who make the Vegas betting lines. Tighter odds with less variation means it's the experienced, professional bettors who separate themselves from the pack.
Take a look at my week 5 NFL consensus picks against the spread
Why Use NFL Week 5 Picks
By Week 5, statistics begin to show a pattern toward explaining why one team is winning and covering versus those that are stumbling. NFL teams with a high propensity of turning the football over are one way of seeing more losers both straight up and against the spread.
Wagering experts are able to sift through the reams of data now available on the current campaign and pick out key stats and NFL computer matchup analysis. Also, injuries are beginning to crop up testing team depth. In addition, factors not on the field begin to litter the schedule, such as coaches under fire, emotional let-down spots, and 0-4 teams that begin to realize the season is already lost.
Getting free Week 5 NFL picks help newcomers to understand what professional bettors are examining and what factors are weighing the most heavily toward covering.
Betting Value in NFL Week 5 Picks
You don't have to just wager on point spread sides. Totals pay the same and many times offer superior wagering value. NFL offenses get in sync in October as it can take all of September for quarterbacks to find a groove and get acclimated with new receiving targets.
Of the Top 10 highest scoring games in NFL history, eight took place in October and November and none happened in September. The sixth-highest scoring game took place in Week 5 2013 when the Denver Broncos topped the Dallas Cowboys, 51-48. The Cowboys had averaged 26 points in their first four games, all in September, then almost doubled that average in Week 5.
Wagering value is all over the card, you just have to know what to look for and where to find it. And there's nothing better than betting the OVER on a game like that and holding a winning ticket by halftime!
Wunderdog NFL Week 5 Picks
NFL seasons have a flow to them. What works in September can change in October, just as different handicapping dynamics have more weight in Week 5 than they did in Week 1. I've been beating the oddsmakers consistently for over two decades with accurate NFL power ratings reflecting what the correct odds should be and where the winning edges are.
I can be on games where the side or total doesn't even move during the week backed by sound reasons and comprehensive analysis. This will help give you an edge in your understanding inside the numbers as well as at the wagering window.
Free NFL Week 5 Picks vs. Premium Picks
Free NFL Week 5 Picks Pros:
- Information is the lifeblood for besting the odds and pro bettors understand which info will be a difference-maker
- No money down on your part means you gain valuable info without spending a dime
- Having a pro do all the work assessing line value is convenient and time-saving
Free NFL Week 5 Pick Cons:
- Betting confidence is essential. Line shifts and too many plays can confuse and overwhelm novice bettors
- Insist on yearly winning percentages and documented services while keeping an eye out for exaggerated winning percentages
- You might not be able to identify who is actually making these free selections and if they have a consistent winning background
Premium NFL Week 5 Pick Pros:
- Premium service releases can have access to information that isn't widely available to the general public, such as personal databases or sharp money movement
- If you're new to betting, paid releases provide multiple angles and experienced insight
- Allows you to go inside the huddle and inside the odds from a trusted, documented professional bettor
Premium NFL Week 5 Pick Cons:
- Be aware that it could zap the fun and passion you have for watching sports
- Premium selections can potentially double your money the wrong way: purchasing plays, then placing $$$ on too few winners
- If you lack wagering experience and discipline you may want to chase money by doubling down after a rough start (DON'T!)
How To Win With Free NFL Week 5 Picks
Week 5 betting odds are actually available a week earlier, in addition to select marquee matchups that are done before the season starts referred to as "Games of the Year". You can compare these "advance lines" with what the actual odds turn out to be.
By analyzing free selections you can isolate games that had the most variance from earlier lines and explore the reasons why. Are the latest lines really more accurate? Or has one team been overvalued?
Free NFL Week 5 Betting Strategy
Undervalued Totals
The highest volume of money bet each Sunday is on sides, but don't overlook NFL totals. Offenses can struggle to adjust to a new playbook in September but be primed to play at a higher level when Week 5 and October dawn. Oddsmakers are setting their totals based on seasonal stats where teams have four games under their belt.
But if a veteran QB has faced three strong defenses in September with the team struggling to score points, they're likely to bust out in October with stats more in line with past performances creating wagering value on the total.
Depth Charts
August preseason football is where depth charts play a key role as coaches have to use everybody to assess what they have. But by October, depth begins to get sapped as NFL football is a violent, physical game that can wear out starters forcing backups to step in. Rebuilding teams often have a shortage of depth, along with teams that have too many high-priced stars as too little of the salary cap is left over to invest in quality depth.
Teams with quality depth can be fine if they lose, for example, two starting offensive linemen and one star running back. Reliable backups are capable of stepping in and the offense won't appear to miss a beat. But teams with an excessive of rookies or lower-paid castoffs from other teams could struggle mightily.
Unbeaten and Winless Teams
4-0 teams heading into Week 5 will be all over the sports broadcasts all week long. But someone will knock them off - likely soon as the only two teams that ran the regular season unbeaten were the 1972 Miami Dolphins (14-0) and the 2007 New England Patriots (16-0).
If a 4-0 team heads out on the road for Week 5, they probably will be a road favorite. Look at the home dog: is this a game that can turn their season around? Is it a Sunday or Monday night showdown, meaning the fans and players will be sky-high to knock off an unbeaten squad? Does the home dog possess some favorable matchup angles on the field?
Conversely, 0-4 teams have head coaches who are feeling the heat. Their jobs are on the line knowing that the owner may fire them soon. 0-4 or 1-3 teams heading into Week 5 can be primed for a strong performance that will be overlooked by the betting public.
Free NFL Week 5 Picks Subscription
All the angles mentioned above and more are a part of my daily oddsmaking study. Compiling and organizing the right data lead to consistently winning selections, which my documented track record attests.
You are invited to get my NFL Week 5 Picks packed with the winning reasons behind each play through a subscription service. Get on board and start building your betting knowledge base - and your wagering bankroll - today!
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