Week 15 of the NFL forces bettors to consider so many avenues. There are good, bad, and ugly teams, ones with quarterbacks who are struggling, others with coaches who are driving their teams hard.
The weather is playing a role it didn't when the season started with cold, windy, even snowy conditions. Injuries keep popping up that change team dynamics, along with long road trips, and motivation regarding playoff positioning.
One matchup handicapping area common in Week 15 is that the powerful ground attacks can take charge of any game. Some offenses are built around a talented O-line, a good one-two running back punch, a mobile QB, or some combination.
Coaches will easily identify their team's strengths and construct game plans around them. This late in the season there are plenty of matchup mismatches where a strong ground attack is facing a unit that can't stop the run. That's going to be the building block handicapping-wise for everything surrounding the odds.
A powerful running game can control the time of possession and wear down the defense. You don't have to assess the QB or passing game that much as they'll pass 19 times and run 38. In a recent Week 15 matchup, the Ravens had a winning record in the playoff hunt and were hosting a Jacksonville bunch winding down a lost season.
The Jaguars were also a warm weather team heading to the Baltimore cold, a bottom 10 run defense, facing a run-oriented offense. Baltimore led 26-0 at the half on the way to a 40-14 rout, covering easily as a double-digit favorite.
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Why Use NFL Week 15 Picks
Gathering football information during the week is the basic bread-and-butter for bettors. This is the first step towards ultimately identifying the best situational or matchup wagering angle for the weekend slate of games. Stockpiling Week 15 free NFL picks is an excellent way to build matchup portfolios before deciding which betting lines are best to pull the trigger on.
Let's take a look at last weeks NFL week 14 picks
Betting Value in NFL Week 15 Picks
A combination of relevant factors that mesh together helps identify the best betting value. A big underdog with a .500 record on the NFL playoff bubble that has a terrific run defense can offer value playing in cold, windy conditions.
A well-coached Week 15 team that is closing in on a division title may have a significant matchup edge with an All-Pro offensive line versus a D-line full of holes. The Buffalo Bills were in that situation one Week 15 at Denver and rolled 48-19 with 534 total yards (182 rushing). Buffalo backers never broke a sweat as 5.5-point favorites.
Wunderdog NFL Week 15 Picks
I'm in it to win it, having been successful at beating the books consistently for over two decades. Results are published on my website, which most football services shy away from. It's about lining up all the information, then selecting the pieces that will best attack soft Vegas numbers.
My NFL Week 15 Picks can present you with oddsmaking insight and pregame analysis to get your foot off to the right start that ends with a step into the winner's circle.
Free NFL Week 15 Picks vs. Premium Picks
Free NFL Week 15 Picks Pros:
- Streamlining the right information leads to winning plays
- Adds to your constant development of essential handicapping knowledge
- Established experts put all the hours in so you don't have to
Free NFL Week 15 Pick Cons:
- Not knowing why lines are moving can confuse newcomers
- Just because someone is giving out free plays it doesn't always mean they're really good at it
- Be skeptical of high/exaggerated winning percentages
Premium NFL Week 15 Pick Pros:
- Premium service releases can incorporate information that isn't widely available to the average bettor
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Premium NFL Week 15 Pick Cons:
- It may dampen your enthusiasm for watching sports
- Picks from a marginal capper can find you breaking even or worse
- If the service advises you to double-up after losing a few in a row, get another service
How To Win With Free NFL Week 15 Picks
On the one hand, Week 15 is great for bettors as there are so many stats that reflect team strengths and weaknesses, along with situational spots and motivational ones.
On the other hand, the oddsmaker knows all this, too, so it's essential to cull through the data and pick out a handful of carefully selected lines to attack. There will still be overvalued and undervalued teams and odds in Week 15, so getting the right advice is critical to winning.
Free NFL Week 15 Betting Strategy
Matchups
Bad teams often struggle in several ways on defense, such as in the secondary, bad third-down defense, or failure to force turnovers. When those teams are matched up in Week 15 against an opponent fighting for a divisional title with a dynamite passing attack, the favorite matches up well.
If the betting line is correct or too high on the favorite, such as double-digits, take a look at the total. The favored team may be in line for a big afternoon scoring 30-40 points, meaning the underdog can score below its average to sail OVER the total.
Line Movement
NFL favorites taking on bad teams will often get the NFL public money this time of the season but observe line movement carefully. If the favorite moves from 7 to 9 it's often a small amount by the large share of the average bettor, which means nothing other than you're getting the worst number now if you want to play the favorite.
It's the small number of Vegas sharps who put large amounts are the lines that should be your curiosity. What did I miss on that line? Are there key injuries just released? Did the coach announce he's benching his starting QB? Following the big money moves are more inciteful and profitable.
Warm Weather Teams to Cold Weather Venues
In September, northern teams have to travel to Florida to play the Dolphins and Jaguars in the sticky, humid heat. That's a difficult liability that visiting teams aren't used to.
By Week 15 and December, the tables turn as teams from warm climates have to head north and play outdoors in the Philadelphia, New York, New England, and Chicago cold.
Check the history to see if they had series problems winning, covering, or scoring points. That can provide wagering edges by going against them or UNDER the total.
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All the odds, angles, data, matchups, and more are a part of my weekly handicapping study. Organizing the information properly leads to consistently winning selections, supported by my documented track record.
There's nothing to lose signing up for my free picks on a subscription basis. You can wager on my selections or simply read the insight to digest the ins and outs of the handicapping world. Because when you step up to the wagering window, you want to be fully prepared.
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