NFL live underdogs certainly have great value in September when no one knows what teams will surprise and what expected playoff teams flop. But by Week 14, the haves and have-nots are clear. It can be a little dangerous to lay too many points with big favorites at his level, but this is the time of the season when good teams can pour it on against weak ones.
Good teams are honing in on division titles or playoff seeding so there is plenty of incentive for a strong effort for four quarters. Teams winding down lost campaigns, however, can pack it in, especially on the road, unless they're very well coached. Something you need to consider when making NFL football picks against the spread.
In one recent Week 14, here were the scores of victories by good home teams marching towards the playoffs: 37-21, 38-10, 45-30, 20-0, and 48-9. And even two strong road teams rolled by 30-9 and 33-13. Those are wire-to-wire covers. By contrast, Week 1 of that same season saw only four teams winning by two or more TDs.
Make sure to check out where the NFL public is betting each week when making your NFL picks.
Why Use NFL Week 14 Picks
Winning in sports betting is not just about the numbers. It's about acquiring information during the week, assessing situations and NFL computer matchups, then identifying the most beatable lines. Getting free picks in Week 14 adds an important layer of study when trying to gather facts and angles.
The bye weeks are over, so it's the final regular-season stretch run. All the teams are in play, which means a lot more ground to cover if you're serious about cashing in the competitive world of 11-to-10.
Betting Value in NFL Week 14 Picks
Interest and motivation are keys in Week 14. Teams that are fighting for postseason playoff slots will be driven hard by their coaches as the name of the game is to win.
Teams winding down losing seasons can have players thinking about offseason contracts, padding their individual stats, or even more interested in staying healthy as they know they won't be with the same organization in a few months.
It can be an excellent time as a bettor to back favorites that are ripe for a one-sided blowout win. The catch is to narrow down the right situations and teams that have the best chance to cover - sometimes even by halftime.
Wunderdog NFL Week 14 Picks
I not only know the stats but have 20+ years of experience monitoring the peaks and valleys that NFL teams go through during the stretch run.
Not all weeks are the same, with some young teams wanting to prove their mettle by giving a top team are tough game, then having nothing left in the emotional tank the next week.
The best way to cash winning tickets is to assemble the right information while having an experienced pro on your side.
Free NFL Week 14 Picks vs. Premium Picks
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Free NFL Week 14 Pick Cons:
- Too many picks from various services will result in conflicts on the same game
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Premium NFL Week 14 Pick Pros:
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How To Win With Free NFL Week 14 Picks
Gathering all the information is wasted time and effort if you overlook the many nuances of sports betting. You win by sifting through the most relevant data and then applying it to the best lines you can find.
This means shopping around for better odds, including the multitude of wagers offered, such as NFL props, first-half bets, moneylines, or parlays. For instance, the oddsmaker might have the side on the whole game nailed but the betting value is on the first-half total.
Finding those weekly advantages is made easier by carefully analyzing, including the use of free NFL picks week 13 picks.
Free NFL Week 14 Betting Strategy
Seasons Within the Season
By Week 14, many NFL teams have already experienced two seasons with another one on the way. A talented team can get off to a bad start because of injuries, a brutal first-half schedule, an excess of road games, or just plain bad luck dropping a string of close games.
Their record may be bad, but they can quickly turn that around and rip of six straight wins. Conversely, you'll see teams start hot and fade fast. Do you remember the Carolina Panthers starting 3-0 one recent September? They finished 5-12. Or the Jacksonville Jaguars winning the opener over the Colts, 27-20, then losing 15 straight!
Young teams can quickly lose their confidence and spiral into a losing streak. And talented teams that are struggling unexpectedly can be undervalued by the public and oddsmakers creating outstanding betting opportunities.
Focus
Struggling teams can be disinterested in practice and on game day. Do you know what that Jacksonville team that lost its final 15 games did in Week 14? They lost 31-10 to Tennessee...at home!
The Jaguars were outscored 140-55 in their final four games. That's an average final score of 35-14. Teams that are fighting for the playoffs often have a great week of practice and can't wait to play on Sunday, as winning is a high for most professional athletes.
You can identify teams that are ready to pack it if coaches don't appear to have any answers on the field, or by what the players are saying after a loss, such as blaming teammates.
Quality Backups
Backups are an essential but overlooked aspect of pro football. It's such a violent, physical game that teams are going to lose multiple starters over the course of a grinding 17-game season. But the fact is, a lot of backups are very good in their role, with many stepping up to be fine starters in a few years.
Watch carefully when a team loses one of two offensive linemen and see if the line play suffers. The star QB might suddenly get sacked 5 times a game for a few weeks, or the running game may vanish. However, astute general managers expect starters to get injured and try and build quality depth. Some teams can plug in second and third stringers and you don't see any dropoff in performance.
In may sound odd, but football teams that have too many star players eating up most of the salary can be in a huge bind when a couple of stars get injured and they're stuck with too many backups who are low-paid castoffs from other teams. You can see the quality of play drop off quickly even with teams that have winning records.
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