NFL Week 12 is unusual with the Thanksgiving holiday interrupting the normal routine for teams. This means three Thursday NFL games with six teams playing on short rest. Meanwhile, the Sunday teams have the holiday break with their families, then have to get back to practice and work on gameday a few days later.
This is an extra challenge for coaches. They understand and welcome a short respite with families for their players during the long campaign, but have to manage it so that the players are back focused during practice, film study, and then at kickoff.
Why Use NFL Week 12 Picks
You don't want to use the exact same handicapping techniques with teams working on short rest for the holiday slate. Many teams have marginal to poor head coaches who aren't as thorough or prepared for getting teams ready to play on Thursday after a Sunday game.
Check the coaching track records to see how their teams played after a Monday night game or a quick turnaround on Thursday. Gathering a list of free Week 12 selections will expand your knowledge and handicapping prowess with insight from top betting professionals.
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Betting Value in NFL Week 12 Picks
If a team has more than one week to prepare, such as opening day or after a bye, a coach should have an impressive game plan prepared with the extra time. If their teams don't excel or show any important differences, then that's a sign he's not an above-average leader.
That can mean if his teams have to go on short rest they'll be even less prepared. Oddsmakers don't factor this in when making betting lines, leaning far more on stats and NFL public betting perception. A coach that has a history of having his teams unprepared can be overvalued in a Thursday game.
In addition, some road teams playing on Thanksgiving Day don't have their hearts in it giving an edge to the home teams. That can be particularly true for home NFL underdogs, providing wagering value on the moneyline in the right situation.
Wunderdog NFL Week 12 Picks
I know all about the right situations with over two decades of expertise beating the Vegas lines. The TV talking heads and the average bettor fail to have a firm grasp on all the factors that need to be examined.
The free NFL picks week 12 that I release incorporate winning angles from the keen eye of an established and documented pro. And if you take advantage, those edges and insight can help you cash at the sportsbook window.
Free NFL Week 12 Picks vs. Premium Picks
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Free NFL Week 12 Pick Cons:
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Premium NFL Week 12 Pick Pros:
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Premium NFL Week 12 Pick Cons:
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Begin with a trusted, documented, winning professional. My sports picks come with a two-decade track record of consistently beating the Vegas line. I provide in-depth analysis along with what percentage of your bankroll is required to win this week and next year.
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Free NFL Week 12 Betting Strategy
Holiday Focus
Thanksgiving is the first family holiday that appears during the football season. After a month of training camp and preseason followed by 12 weeks of constant game prep, practice, and travel, pro athletes are more than ready for a mental and physical break.
Mentally for many, a holiday is a time to be with family instead of watching game films or slogging through another long day of practice. All 11 players on offense and defense have to be focused to play at a high level together, so if some of them are distracted by the holidays, the team might have a poor performance. On Thanksgiving Day 2015, Philadelphia was a small favorite at Detroit...and lost 45-14!
The home team also won the biggest Thanksgiving Day blowout when the Cowboys crushed the Seahawks, 51-7. Think the Eagles and Seahawks were 100% focused on football or drumsticks?
Trends
Sports betting trends are a mixed bag, only having relevance if there are tangible reasons behind them. Just because a team has won all seven of its Sunday night appearances or is 12-3 ATS on Thanksgiving doesn't mean they will give a good performance. Rather, check how the team has been playing lately.
For instance, in the above example when the Lions whipped the Eagles, 45-14, as a Thanksgiving home dog, they had won their previous two games. One of those was an 18-16 win at Green Bay as an 11-point underdog. In addition, betting trends with totals have more relevance.
You may find a team that has a strong defense and plays a conservative style on offense looking to establish the run on a 14-6 run UNDER the total. That trend makes sense: they try to kill the clock, play a field position battle, and prefer low-scoring games by design.
Coaching
Teams need talented coaching to keep focused as the long season winds down or games appear around the holidays. Examine a coach's history down the regular season stretch, in the postseason, or how their teams perform on short rest.
Competent coaches will have their team ready to play no matter what the scheduling situation. While with below-average coaches, you'll be able to find many difficult situational spots where the team imploded and failed to cover.
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