NFL divisional games and rivalries often litter the betting card from NFL Week 10 onward. Non-conference tilts are almost, if not completely, out of the way so TV executives can promote longtime rivalries and key matchups with division title implications. This adds some extra elements for bettors.
One is to leave all the hype to the TV talking heads and let the novice bettors get caught up in it. Focusing on matchups and recent performance are far more important when trying to predict which NFL football picks cover the spread. Just because a team appears to be out for revenge doesn't mean they're going to exact it.
The other is that rivalry, revenge, and games with divisional implications often means intense defense from both teams. For betting purposes, that can mean low-scoring games UNDER the total. That's even more true late in the NFL season as the weather can turn cold, windy, or ugly in many northern outdoor stadiums.
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Betting Value in NFL Week 11 Picks
I mentioned that rivalry games can be defensive duels when the matchups align. Just think of the Ravens/Steelers AFC North games over the last two decades. They've often had great defenses and play a physical game in the trenches.
Some of the scores over a 10-year stretch: 20-17, 26-6, 19-16, 22-20, 13-10, 23-16, 26-9, 21-14, 28-10, 26-14, 28-10, 19-14, and 20–19. In addition, three went overtime with final scores of 16-13, 26-23, and 23-20. That's a lot of close games and far more defense than offense.
With those teams often playing close games decided in the final minute it can be difficult to be on the right side. But the wagering value can lie in the NFL total, including wagering on the first half UNDER, another angle that pro handicappers utilize more than the average bettor.
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My database and decades of expertise allow me to identify what the true odds should be. I then keep close tabs on which way the lines are moving and where the wagering value is.
The free picks I release also incorporate on-the-field matchups with handicapping situations such as sandwich games, revenge, home/road differentials, and let-down spots. The in-depth reasoning is explained, assisting all my clients to have a better understanding of the NFL handicapping world - one of which can be you.
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Free NFL Week 11 Pick Cons:
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Start by making your own lines, doing some homework on where you think the wagering value lies, then make a short list of your top plays. Then acquire some free NFL picks and examine what games a documented professional bettor is on. Compare with your own and see if there are similarities or opposite sides, then reassess what you might have overlooked.
On game day, back a few of the plays that match your own along with the expert's top choices. You will add to your betting bankroll plus add to your understanding of the many sports handicapping dynamics.
Free NFL Week 11 Betting Strategy
Rivalries
Some NFL games are more important than others. Rivalries are often key divisional games, though not always. Around Week 11, two divisional opponents may be battling for first place, meaning this is the biggest game of the season for both. Other times, a first-place team may head to the home stadium of a last-place team.
For the visitors, this might be just another game on the schedule, but for the last place team (probably an underdog), this is the biggest game of their season: a chance to beat a good team in front of the home fans and stick it to their rival. NFL favorites don't win every game. Finding the reasons why an underdog might win and cover is essential.
Home/Road Play
This is used in most sports. Some teams can beat anyone at home, but melt like Green Bay cheese in a summer heatwave when heading out on the road. Analyze stats on how a team plays at home and on the road. Some quarterbacks have a terrific TD/INT ratio at home, but a bad one on the road.
Some head coaches get their team to play at a high level at home but fail to on road trips. Some teams play very good defense in front of the home fans but get torched away from home. From a betting perspective, they may be worth a look at UNDER the total at home and OVER on the road.
Revenge
Revenge is a mixed betting bag. The average bettor loves focusing on revenge, but pro cappers give it far less weight. Revenge is best utilized then the matchups are an edge for the team hell-bent on exacting revenge, such as a great defensive line than can stuff the run and bring pressure on the opposing QB.
Or if the "angry" team has a competent, capable quarterback who doesn't turn the ball over a lot. But revenge on its own is too weak a betting strategy. And if the betting public helps move the line too much toward the team in revenge mode, the wagering value could actually be in the undervalued underdog.
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