Cleveland at Boston

Think the Red Sox want to be here? Some teams can't handle the postseason glare, and the Red Sox, for all their talent and impressive offensive numbers, have looked like a group that can't stand the October spotlight. Boston has been patient at the plate all season, but all of a sudden many of their hitters are swinging at bad pitches out of the strike zone. They struck out 22 times in the first two games and watched stars Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, David Ortiz, Xander Bogaerts, and Jackie Bradley, Jr. go a combined 4-for-36. The defense in the field has been shoddy, along with the pitching. The Red Sox turn their desperate eyes to Clay Buchholz (8-10, 4.78 ERA), who has a 4.85 ERA in seven career starts against Cleveland. He was worse this season against the Tribe in two starts, allowing a combined nine runs and seven walks in 10 innings. The Red Sox are favored, but are also 10-22 in Buchholz's last 32 home starts. In addition, managers in the postseason won't hesitate to go to their best bullpen arms early if needed, and Boston is on a 12-3-1 run UNDER the total, including 13-3-2 UNDER when Buchholz faces a team with a winning record. Cleveland Indians manager Terry Francona is pushing all the right buttons, which is no surprise as he's been successful in October multiple times, including a pair of World Series titles. The Indians are 13-3 against a team with a winning record. Indians starter Josh Tomlin (13-9) posted a 1.75 ERA in his final four appearances during the regular season, capped by a win at Kansas City that helped guarantee the Indians home field advantage in the ALDS. Cleveland is 27-11 when Tomlin starts, including 14-5 in his last 19 road starts. And don't overlook the Cleveland offense, which finished fifth in baseball in runs scored, eighth in on-base percentage, and ninth in slugging. And the bullpen is outstanding, winning 5-4 and 6-0 in this series, making the Indians 84-1 with a lead after eight innings this season. Cleveland is 9-3 UNDER the total against the AL East. Time to get out the brooms! Play Cleveland as my MLB Playoffs Game of the Year, and also play UNDER the total.