Auburn at Mississippi State

Both of these teams notched big wins last week, but one under-performed and one over-performed. Auburn missed covering their large spread while Mississippi State covered with 20 points to spare. Mississippi State was saddled with the toughest schedule in the country a year ago. This season's task may not be quite as daunting, but the Bulldogs will still see nine teams that went to a Bowl game a year ago. Such is life in the SEC. The good news is this team went from 15 points a game to 26. Despite the tough schedule last season, the Bulldogs led the SEC in rushing. The area of weakness has been the passing game, but perhaps that is changing. The passing game accounted for 372 yards last game as Tyler Tussell through four TD's against Memphis while completing 13 of 16 passes for 254 yards. Auburn piled on the offense last week vs. Arkansas State, but the defense gave a lot back. Arkansas State scored 23 points, completed 33 of 49 passes and even dominated time of possession at over 34 minutes. These are all bad signs for Auburn. The Tigers have had a lot of trouble on the road as they are 1-8 ATS in their last nine away from home. The Bulldogs have been starting strong at 4-1 ATS in their last five September games and I like them in this one.